India-Canada Fracas: Shocking Ramifications for World Order
If we just see one tree at a time, we will never see the forest.
Last week, a geopolitical bombshell exploded, and its enormous implications have not been understood by mainstream media and pundits. Yes, I am referring to Canadian leader Trudeau’s allegation that India had carried out an extraterritorial assassination of a Sikh separatist in Canada earlier this month. This event is a harbinger of profound changes in strategic partnerships among the influential powers of the world. India, which is at the epicenter of this maelstrom, must understand that this diplomatic spat is much more than Canada, Trudeau or Sikh separatism. If we just see one tree at a time, we will never see the forest, so let’s explore the expansive and beguiling geopolitical forest.
Background
Sikhs are people of an ethno-religious group that follows Sikhism, a 500-year-old monotheistic religion that shares some beliefs with Hinduism. Sikhs make up majority of the population in Punjab, a north-eastern state in India. About 10% of Sikhs live outside India, mostly in English speaking countries such as the US, UK, and Australia. As for Canada, it is home to about 800,000 Sikhs, the biggest population of the group outside of India. Punjabi – the language of Sikhs – is also the third most spoken language in Canada. Not surprisingly, Sikhs in Canada have significant political influence.
One of the reasons for the relatively large share of diaspora among Sikhs is separatism. Even when the British rule of India was coming to an end, Sikhs demanded their own state, just like Muslims. In the late 1970s, the demand for their homeland – Khalistan – led to violent insurrections and lasted for a decade. During this time, the Indian government attacked the Sikhs’ holy temple where militants had taken refuge, and killed the separatist leader. As a revenge, domestic terrorists killed Indian prime minister Indira Gandhi using two of her Sikh guards. Next year, in 1985, Sikh separatists in Canada blew up an Air India plane flying from Canada, killing 300+ civilians.
While such horrifying events have not occurred since then, and the Khalistan movement is practically non-existent within India, the Modi government has been very concerned about the Sikh diaspora. Some overseas separatists hold “referendums” for Khalistan as publicity stunts. Some separatist leaders have been labeled as terrorists by the Indian government, but countries like Canada have refused to extradite them, creating diplomatic tensions.
India’s version of the CIA is the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), which has been alleged to have taken matters in its own hands when diplomacy fails. For example, a month before the assassination of the Canadian Sikh separatist, another one was gunned down in Pakistan.
However, the person who created the international uproar is Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Khalistan separatist and a Canadian citizen who was killed in Canada earlier this year in June.
Did the Indian Spy Agency Kill Nijjar?
Trudeau has said that there are “credible allegations” that India was behind the assassination of Nijjar. Immediately after the shocking claim, Canada expelled the top Indian diplomat in Canada – a guy allegedly from the Indian spy agency.
The Indian government’s response has been a “non-denial denial.” When Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar was in the US and was asked about it during an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, he glibly answered, “That is not the government policy.”
He could have simply said, “No, we definitely did not kill Nijjar.”
As we will see in this article, it’s likely the Indian government fell into a geopolitical entrapment.
Intriguing Turn of Events
What’s fascinating is that these events would have been unthinkable just a few weeks ago. Remember Modi’s state visits to France and the US earlier this year, and the G20? They were full of pomp and splendor, hugs and compliments, strategic deals and long-term commitments.
In such an environment, India and Canada should have easily solved the problems regarding dissidents behind closed doors. For example, Canada could have quietly provided intel on the separatists to India. Note that the allies don’t harbor dissidents of each other – for example, the Basque separatists in Spain or the French-Canadian separatists won’t find any support in the US or Europe.
Instead, Canada decided to embarrass India in front of the whole world. Worse and more shocking, the US had played a key role in providing incriminating evidence – i.e., communications of Indian diplomats obtained through surveillance.
The Mockingbird media in the US has also been fueling the fire by dropping bomblets of allegations against India. We are learning now that the FBI had warned Sikhs in the US that they might be targets of extrajudicial killings by India.
The official response of the US government has been certainly muted. (Imagine the uproar if China had killed Uyghur separatists in a Western country). However, the State department has said that the US is deeply concerned by allegations, the investigations must proceed, and that the Modi government should cooperate.
Interestingly, during this diplomatic row, the US ambassador to Pakistan - Donald Blome - visited Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), specifically to Gilgit-Baltistan, a sensitive topic in Indian politics.
American Trap
If the USA were a true friend of India, Americans would have brought Trudeau and Modi together to solve this matter. Thus, what is happening is a deliberate campaign aimed at either Modi or the Indian establishment.
What many people don’t understand is that the Anglo-American Empire is one family. Thus, Canada is not a tiny stand-alone country. Whatever it does or says is based on collective decisions. The Five Eyes countries – US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand – work as one all-seeing eye. Plus, Canada belongs to NATO.
This brings us to the American trap. What could have happened is that one part of the US deep state offered to assist the Indian spy agency to eliminate terrorists living abroad, while another part of the US spy agency recorded the activities and built a dossier, which can now be leveraged to demonize or blackmail. This scenario is becoming more possible when we notice the 180-degree change in the narratives in Western media over the last week.
Dramatic Change in Tone of Western Media
Just three months ago, the US was fawning over India with platitudes: “As two of the world’s largest democratic economies, the United States and India are indispensable partners in advancing global prosperity and a free, fair, and rules-based economic order.”
Now, a US politician – brother of former Vice President Mike Pence – is accusing India of “state-sponsored violence” on Twitter (X).
India’s democracy has suddenly been recategorized as a “regime” in the Foreign Policy magazine. We all know what happens to “regimes” – they get targeted for regime change.
The Financial Times bemoans that “Modi’s authoritarian streak is becoming harder to ignore.” According to The Economist, “India has muzzled the press, cowed the courts and persecuted minorities.”
The Economist also warns that “India is testing America’s friendship; if the investigation confirms Indian involvement in this crime, India would quickly lose some of the bipartisan support it now enjoys in Washington.”
In the NY Times op-ed, Nicholas Kristof declares: “Modi is a nationalist authoritarian; India has no proof that Nijjar was a terrorist; Western countries should categorically stand with Canada in calling for a fair investigation of the murder and justice for those responsible.”
The Guardian cranked up sensationalism with words like these: “bloody stain that will be hard to wash away” … “Purblind arrogance” … and “Hindu ultra-nationalist agenda.”
How Propaganda War Against India Can Escalate
India must be vigilant and not take America’s geopolitical partnership for granted. American foreign policy doesn’t believe in loyalty; and its propaganda powers are still formidable. Look how the US ran relentless atrocity propaganda about Uyghurs and Xinjiang in China. The same thing can happen to India.
Replace Uyghurs with Muslims in Kashmir or Sikhs in Punjab or Christians in Manipur or Dalits all over India, one can see how the Western media will have blockbuster contents for many years.
Just in the last couple of days, Washington Post has published detailed exposes on troll armies in India: “Modi’s BJP party and Hindu nationalists have perfected using social media to spread inflammatory, false, and bigoted material on an industrial scale.”
My suspicion – as I wrote seven months ago – is that we are witnessing the start of a long anti-India and anti-Modi hybrid war by the US.
US Hybrid War on India
A valuable lesson for India to remember is that the West will never treat India as an equal.
While the US desperately needs India to contain China and divide Asia…
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S.L. Kanthan