Predictions for 2023, a Pivotal Year

Major changes in geopolitics and geo-economics are imminent

2022 was supposed to be the year when the world bounced back from the COVID shock. Instead, there was a knockout punch from the Russia-versus-NATO proxy war, which disrupted energy supplies and prices, creating chaos all over the world. Inflation skyrocketed in Europe, stock markets plunged everywhere, US dollar — the safe haven during economic crises — created debt problems around the world, some developing nations ran out of foreign exchange reserves and fell into IMF’s debt trap, and the world economy’s growth halved from the previous year. On a positive note, we avoided a nuclear war. So what will 2023 be like?

It is going to be a very fascinating and possibly a consequential year that heralds profound changes in geopolitics and geo-economics. Let’s take a look at some of the major pieces in the global chessboard.

Europe: Deindustrialized and FUBAR Long Term

How many times can a region commit suicide? The answer is, apparently, at least three times. After destroying itself in WW1 and WW2, Europe is destroying itself once again, although this time in a more peaceful way. To help prolong the American Century, Europe is decoupling itself from Russia, antagonizing China, and de-industrializing itself, cementing its long-term decline.

According to the Fourth Turning theory, societies enter major crises every four generations — about 80 years — since the people who went through a crisis are no longer alive to warn the current generation. And it has been 80 years since WW2.