What led to the emergence of the Hamas Israel Conflict?
The simple but counterintuitive answer is that both Israel and Hamas wanted this conflict. After 15 years of clashes, both parties would like a decisive win. Israel wanted to root out Hamas once and for all; and Hamas wanted to humiliate Israel militarily and force the issue of Palestinian self-determination and statehood.
This is a very complex situation where what you see is not what you get. For example, most people would be shocked to learn that Israel played a vital role in the creation and perpetuation of Hamas.
Israel’s strategy – as revealed in a Wikileaks email – was that a militant Hamas would provide Israel an opportunity to not negotiate with Palestinians. In the 2007 cable, Israeli Director of Military Intelligence Major General Amos Yadlin was quoted as saying that he would be “very happy” if Hamas took over Gaza because Israel could then demonize Palestine and treat it as a “hostile state.”
Thus, Hamas was seen by Israel as a controlled opposition – a group violent enough to unite Israel, but not too strong. Hamas was also a part of US/Israel strategy to divide and conquer the Palestinian leadership. Finally, Hamas gave the perfect excuse for Israel to reject another Oslo accords-like treaty with the Palestinians. Note that Israel’s PM Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated by an extremist Israeli for making peace with the Palestinians – PLO and Yasser Arafat.
These are the reasons why, even as recently as in 2019, Netanyahu said in a Likud party meeting that “Israel should support the transfer of funds to Gaza, because maintaining the separation between the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza would prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state.”
Thus, Israel has facilitated Egypt’s negotiations with Hamas, and has encouraged Qatar to provide generous funding to Hamas. At the same time, Israel’s Machiavellian strategy to keep Hamas’ power at an “optimal” level has forced devastating conflicts every few years like clockwork.
By the way, this sort of risky foreign policy also led Israel to arm, fund and support Syrian rebels, many of whom are associated with Al Qaeda – known by various names such as Al Nusra or HTS.
Not surprisingly, Israel’s best ally, the USA, is also known for such cynical ploys. The US befriended the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1950s to counter secular Arab leaders – in Egypt, Syria and others – who were a tad bit too pro-USSR. And everyone knows how the US created the Mujahideen and armed Bin Laden in the 1980s to fight the Soviet Union.
Starting in 2012, the US armed and funded Salafist and jihadist fighters in Syria to overthrow President Assad. In an Orwellian fashion, any terrorist group can be relabeled as a “moderate rebel” or a “freedom fighter,” depending on who benefits.
Was there an intelligence failure on the side of Israel?
If you don’t believe in conspiracy theories, what happened last week – on the 50th anniversary of Yom Kippur War – was an epic intelligence failure. An incredible number of things had gone astray simultaneously on the day of attack as well as the previous months.
How could Israel, which is renowned for its intelligence and security, fail so spectacularly? Let’s start with the walls and fences, which have extensive and sophisticated technology to detect the slightest dangers. One former IDF soldier said that even a cat getting too close to the barrier would trigger an alarm. However, on Oct 7, Hamas was able to use explosives and bulldozers to breach the “Iron Wall” in broad daylight.
Second, many Israeli guards for the Gaza strip had been redeployed to West Bank in the days before the unprecedented attack.
Third, these attacks would have taken extraordinary planning – from training people how to fly paragliders to creating and coordinating commando units for sophisticated operations. In fact, Hamas had created mock Israeli settlements in Gaza, rehearsed the entire operation in plain sight, and even posted videos a week earlier. Given that the Israeli intelligence monitors all communications and actions in Gaza, and even has spies/informants within Gaza, the failure to detect and stop the massive attack is incredible. Moreover, three days before the attack, Egyptian officials had warned Israel about an impending threat.
Thus, it may be accurate to call this Israel’s “9/11” or “Pearl Harbor” – both events made possible by colossal intelligence failures. More importantly, one must remember that both those consequential moments led to America’s 20-year-long war on terror and WW2 respectively. Is Israel planning on such grand military adventurism to perhaps expand its territories? After all, Gaza and West Bank were annexed by Israel after the Six-day War in 1967.
On the other hand, if you believe the so-called conspiracy theories — a term invented by the CIA after the assassination of JFK — then Israel let the Hamas attack happen. This is the LIHOP theory — Let it Happen on Purpose. For example, the US had ample warnings about the imminent attacks on Pearl Harbor, but US elites wanted a catastrophic event to flip the public opinion, which was staunchly against the US getting involved in WW2.
What impact would it have on the Saudi-Israel deal and the future of Abraham Accords?
Saudi Prince Salman had emphasized Palestinian rights as a crucial demand in the negotiations with Israel. The more calamitous the attack on Gaza in the coming days and weeks, the less likely that Saudis would make a deal with Israel. As for the Abraham Accords, it won’t be openly touted for a long time. It is also worth noting that, before this conflict, only 20% of Saudis had positive views about the Abraham Accords. That number is destined to plummet.
Moreover, there are inherent power struggles between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Even the USA exhibits geopolitical bipolar disorder when it comes to Saudi Arabia. For example, during the 2020 US presidential election, Joe Biden had many undiplomatic words to say about Saudi Prince MBS. However, after watching MBS pivot to Russia and China, Americans are changing their tune, but it may be too late.
Saudi Arabia seems to have placed its bet on a multipolar world and the end of US hegemony. In late 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Saudi Arabia to a great fanfare. Nearly all the Arab leaders flew into Riyadh to meet with Xi, who openly talked about selling oil for yuan – and thus threatening the petrodollar, which underpins American prosperity and primacy.
Later, Saudi Arabia shocked the world by renewing diplomatic ties with Iran – a rapprochement brokered by none other than China. Then, Saudi Arabia joined BRICS, signaling an escape from the US’ sphere of influence. In Saudi schools, all children now must learn Chinese language – a clear indication of MBS’ perception of where the world is going.
What is the role of Hezbollah, Qatar and Iran according to you?
Qatar is a key financial sponsor of Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood. The Hamas leadership is also based out of Qatar, which can therefore play a major role in mediations – at least, in securing the release of hostages held by Hamas. There is no hope for immediate ceasefire, as war hawks in the US State Department have prohibited the use of phrases such as de-escalation, end of violence/bloodshed, and restoring calm.
As for Iran, it is a linchpin in this conflict for a myriad of reasons.
First, it’s the #1 regional enemy of US and Israel – and has been so for decades. As General Wesley Clark revealed, the Pentagon had a list of seven countries that it wanted to “take out” right after 9/11, and Iran was the biggest and final target. The US and Israel would like to shatter the so-called Shiite Crescent that stretches across Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The list of American politicians and generals who want to defeat Iran is long, and the current chaos may present the perfect opportunity. Remember the motto: “Never let a crisis go to waste.”
Second, Iran is the key sponsor of Hezbollah, the powerful militant group based out of Lebanon. The capabilities of Hezbollah are manyfold larger than that of Hamas. After fighting Al Qaeda and ISIS in Syria for over a decade, Hezbollah’s fighters are experienced and battle-hardened. They also have a formidable arsenal of weapons that include sophisticated missiles of various types. If Hezbollah opens up a second front, Israel will be forced to bomb Lebanon, thus escalating the current conflict to dangerous levels.
Finally, Iran’s geopolitical power has been on the rise. It has made peace with Saudi Arabia, helped Assad stay in power in Syria, joined BRICS, and enhanced its strategic partnerships with Russia and China. In the late 1990s, American strategist Brzezinski warned that the biggest threat to the American empire would be a “grand alliance of Russia, China and Iran – an antihegemonic coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances.” That dreaded scenario has now come to fruition – ironically due to America’s misguided foreign policy.
How would this conflict transform the current status-quo in Middle East?
We are at a critical juncture that can easily explode into a mini-WW3. The potentials for a massive ethnic cleansing and a horrifying humanitarian catastrophe are also real. Driven by geopolitical ambitions and overconfidence, the American and Israeli governments are pushing the envelope. Imagine the US, NATO and Israel bombing Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran at the same time. The consequences will be horrendous for the Middle East. The rest of the world will also suffer from the subsequent energy crisis – remember the oil embargo after the 1973 war by the same belligerents. Another one of the ramifications will be the US losing its soft power forever, especially in the Global South.
The only rational solution is peace. Countries such as India, Russia and China support the two-state solution, which includes statehood for Palestine based on the 1967 borders. It may be difficult for the hardliners to accept, but Israel will be far more secure with peaceful relations with Palestinians and all the Arab neighbors.
--- S.L. Kanthan