To paraphrase Shakespeare, we are living through the best of times and worst of times. It’s the best of times because of science, technology, trade, finance and an interconnected world. We have the potential to eradicate hunger worldwide — it’s not rocket science. Similarly, we can provide electricity and clean water to everyone, create jobs with living wages, and even guarantee housing and healthcare. Well, we did make a lot of progress in these areas — look at the astronomical improvement in developing nations, especially Asia, over the last 40 years. That’s the good news.
However, events over the last couple of years portend the worst of times. Globalization and free trade, which propelled the world’s economy to new heights, are being reversed. Trade wars and technology wars between the #1 and #2 economies — USA and China — are terrible for the world. New geopolitical blocs such as the QUAD and AUKUS are threatening to bring devastating wars to Asia once again. Western media, military generals and politicians are talking about a war with China as if its a foregone conclusion.
Sadly, even a global pandemic didn’t slow down the US attempt to contain China.
Then there is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, brought about by expansion of NATO and cynical provocations by the West. This war has brought the world to the brink of a nuclear Armageddon. Do we really want to revert back to the days of iron curtain and Cold War?
Developing nations where 80% of the world’s population lives will be adversely affected by geopolitical chaos. Take for example, India, which is still a low-middle income country. Hundreds of millions of people still don’t have access to clean water at home; one-third of children are malnourished; and k abor force participation rate is only 40%.
For India to leverage its demographic dividend - i.e., the vast pool of young people - it must urbanize rapidly and create hundreds of millions of jobs. The world bank estimates that India must spend whopping $1 trillion on urban infrastructure alone over the next two decades.
To achieve its developmental goals, India must avoid the imperialist trap of divide-and-rule. India should embrace strategic autonomy
and avoid getting caught in the great power conflict. There’s an Indian saying “vasudeva kudumbakam” which translates to “the world is one family.” Needless to say, the world includes China and even Pakistan.
Some people say that India cannot work with China unless the border conflicts are resolved first. I say the opposite is true — work with China on trade, infrastructure, manufacturing etc., and the emerging goodwill will help resolve the border issues.
As a member of BRICS and SCO, India has a lot of opportunity to work with China to create a peaceful multipolar world. India should join the Belt and Road Initiative to accelerate Asian and Eurasian development. India’s future will depend on energy from Russia and the Middle East. India’s future customers will be mostly in Europe and Asia. And India’s manufacturing will rely upon foreign direct investments and even technical expertise of Chinese firms.
We need to reimagine a new security and development architecture that can be a guiding blueprint for India’s domestic and foreign policy.
However, this new paradigm is not just for India. In a highly interconnected world, the fate of one country or a region affects everyone. Thus, the global community must share a common vision and work together as a family.
— S.L. Kanthan
Twitter: Kanthan2030
Podcast: Strategic Autonomy for India and Developing Nations in a Multipolar World